Dynamics of stock market cycles: a systematic Introspection from some recent evidences

Abstract

Historically, stock-market cycles, crashes and the resultant panic have ended in ultimate devastating impact on the rest of the economy. Proper macroeconomic management and accomplishing macroeconomic objectives require both in terms of depth and width, sound health of the financial system. A fragile financial sector is often identified as the prime factor in generating and aggravating crises. Moreover, with extensive trade and financial integration, crises in one market immediately affect others through dynamic linkages among markets or “contagion”. Hence, at this juncture, inquiry into market dynamics becomes crucial. Present study intervenes here focusing on the two past significant stock-market crises namely, the dotcom bubble and the global melt-down of 2007-08. Around the five sub-phases the study found significant volatility transmission channels primarily through past-volatility impacts. In recent era of fluctuation and instability, the stock-markets have become more integrated where innovation and volatility impacts are strong and significantly positive. The news-impacts, however, are always less intense than past-volatility impacts. Moreover, even with increasing financial integration, there remains a basis for global portfolio diversification